Such unequal selection substantially complicates efforts to understand inequalities in mortality risk-including inequalities driven by observable factors-across and within groups. This selection will generally occur unequally across social groups with different patterns of heterogeneity and overall levels of mortality risk. This heterogeneity gives rise to mortality selection: the frailest members of a cohort disproportionately succumb to mortality, eventually leaving an intensely selected, relatively robust cohort in its place (e.g., Beard 1959, 1971 Kannisto 1992 Vaupel et al. That is, if one person is higher-risk than another at young ages, he or she will also be higher-risk at older ages, should they both live that long. All cohorts are heterogeneous in mortality risk in ways that are often stably ordered over the life course. Unobserved heterogeneity in mortality is pervasive and consequential. Mortality deceleration, Mortality selection, Heterogeneity, Methods, Logistic models Introduction I argue that these results challenge some conventional heuristics for understanding the relationship between selection and deceleration undermine certain inferences from deceleration timing to patterns of social inequality and imply that standard parametric models, assumed to plateau at most once, may sometimes badly misestimate deceleration timing-even by decades. Simulations show that these patterns are plausible in model cohorts that in the aggregate resemble cohorts in the Human Mortality Database. I show that even in a very simple model-one that is composed of just two subpopulations with Gompertz mortality-(1) aggregate mortality can decelerate even while a majority of the cohort is frail (2) multiple decelerations are possible and (3) mortality selection can produce acceleration as well as deceleration. ![]() In this article, I argue that deceleration patterns may reveal surprisingly little about the heterogeneity that putatively produces them. ![]() Mortality deceleration-the slowing of mortality’s rise with age-has been considered an important window into heterogeneity that otherwise might be impossible to explore. Unobserved heterogeneity in mortality risk is pervasive and consequential.
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